COVID-19 numbers have seen a worrying rise as the colder winds blow in.
Experts are warning that the US might be heading towards a third peak of the pandemic. Per The New York Times, in April, the number of new cases peaked at an average of 31,709 cases per day within a 7-day period. The country reached its second peak in July, when the national seven-day case average hit 66,690.
While the numbers went down over the course of summer, averaging below 50,000 cases a day in August and September, experts are expressing concern at the 73% increase in the number of new cases in five and a half weeks – the number of new coronavirus cases has seen a steep rise in just over a month, with more than 60,300 new cases reported on Tuesday (October 20).
“We are headed in the wrong direction, and that’s reflected not only in the number of new cases but also in test positivity and the number of hospitalizations,” said Dr. Caitlin Rivers, an epidemiologist at Johns Hopkins University. “Together, I think these three indicators give a very clear picture that we are seeing increased transmission in communities across the country.”
At a John Hopkins virtual event posted Friday (October 16), the nation’s top infectious disease expert, Dr. Anthony Fauci, warned that the baseline of case numbers, which haven’t dipped below 30,000 since late June, were far too high as we enter into the fall and winter seasons.
“You can’t enter into the cool months of the fall and the cold months of the winter with a high community infection baseline,” Dr. Fauci said.
What’s more alarming is that places that weren’t as affected earlier on in the pandemic, such as the Midwest and Great Plains, is also seeing a rise.
“There may be places that were not hit hard early on where the virus finds it very hospitable because people are complacent,” Dr. Amesh Adalja, a senior scholar at the Johns Hopkins University Center for Health Security, said.
According to John Hopkins University’s data, more than 8.2 million cases of COVID-19 have been reported in the U.S. – and the illness has become fatal for more than 220,800 people.
But the U.S. is not the only country experiencing a new surge of coronavirus cases. Countries in the European Union have also seen a spike in the coronavirus cases – to the point that it has started averaging more new daily cases over a week, per capita compare to the U.S.
And, according to Dr. Scott Gottlieb, former commissioner of the US Food and Drug Administration, it’s likely to get worse.
“It’s going to be a difficult fall and winter,” he told CNBC on Monday (October 19) evening. “I think we’re about two or three weeks behind Europe — so we’re about a week away from starting to enter a period where we’re going to see a rapid acceleration in cases.”
And Dr. Peter Hotez, dean of the National School of Tropical Medicine at Baylor College of Medicine, warns that the number could hit 70,000 in a week or two and urges everyone to practice self-care and look after their mental health.
“Look out for your mental health, because the normal response to this is people are going to get sad and upset, and maybe even depressed, so have access to mental health counseling,” he said. “In other words, put those belts and suspenders on and get ready.”
Americans have been continually urged to wear masks, social distance, and avoid large gatherings. However, in an audio call with U.S. governors, Center for Disease Control and Prevention Director, Dr. Robert Redfield, shared what could be the reason behind the growing spread of the infection.
“In the public square, we’re seeing a higher degree of vigilance and mitigation steps in many jurisdictions,” Dr. Redfield told the governors, per CNN. “But what we’re seeing as the increasing threat right now is actually acquisition of infection through small household gatherings. Particularly with Thanksgiving coming up, we think it’s really important to stress the vigilance of these continued mitigation steps in the household setting.”
However, steps could be taken to minimize the risk.
“If you really want to get together indoors, everybody should quarantine themselves for 14 days, and then get tested which would substantially reduce the risk,” emergency physician Dr. Leana Wen advised.
Take care. Stay safe. Stay sane.
