With the summer months coming to a close and the colder season blowing in, health experts have expressed concern that the colder and drier conditions of winter might lead to a possible new wave of coronavirus infections.
“It is not an unreasonable hypothesis to think that it will get worse in the winter,” Dr. Simon Clarke, an associate professor in cellular microbiology at the University of Reading, said.
The colder months usually bring with it flu season – and the colder and drier conditions in winter strongly affects the transmission of flu-like illnesses. Add to that the increased likelihood that people would congregate indoors and in more crowded settings
With COVID-19 presenting similar symptoms and mode of transmission, yet with so much unknown about the virus, health experts caution that there needs to be a “much stricter messaging” to ensure that people take extra precautions to avoid inadvertently spreading a virus – even if it’s not coronavirus.
“People in schools, workplaces often turn up to work with coughs and colds and spread them around to people … They can’t do that this year because how do you know it is not something more serious?” Dr. Clarke said. “The simple answer is you don’t.”
Dr. Catherine Smallwood, senior emergency officer at the World Health Organization in Europe, also shared her observations during an online press briefing last month: “People are traveling more, they are going back to work, schools are reopening — these are all factors that are going to increase the risk of community transmission and further transmission.”
“As we approach the flu season and the winter months, there are additional factors that will conflate and add even more to that level of risk,” she continued, concluding, “We are very concerned that countries prepare adequately for that and we are very, very engaged in that at the moment.”
The race to find a vaccine against the SARS-CoV-2 virus – the virus that causes COVID-19 – continues at an unprecedented rate. There are over 100 vaccines in development around the world, with several in various phases of human trials. Three companies are beginning Phase 3 of clinical trials in the U.S.: AstraZeneca, Moderna, and Pfizer/BioNTech.
While the Center for Disease Control and Prevention has already sent out documents asking states to prepare for a possible distribution of a potential coronavirus vaccine as early as late October, U.S. Surgeon General Dr. Jerome Adams has said that the guidance is “just in case.”
On Wednesday (September 16), CDC Director Dr. Robert Redfield addressed the possibility of a vaccine being available later this year.
He told the Senate Appropriations committee that a COVID-19 vaccine might be ready in November or December, however it will be in “very limited supply” and “will have to be prioritized.”
“It will be those first responders and those at greatest risk for death, and then eventually that will expand,” he said.
“If you’re asking me when is it going to be generally available to the American public, so we can begin to take advantage of vaccine to get back to our regular life, I think we’re probably looking at third, late second quarter, third quarter 2021.”
However, Dr. Soumya Swaminathan, chief science officer at the World Health Organization in Geneva, said during a virtual meeting hosted by the United Nations Foundation Tuesday (September 15), that life returning to the pre-COVID normal may not be until 2022.
“We’re looking at 2022 at least before enough people start getting the vaccine to build immunity,” said Dr. Swaminathan said. “So, for a long time to come, we have to maintain the same kind of measures that are currently being put in place with physical distancing, the masking and respiratory hygiene.”
In the U.S., more than 6.6 Million have been infected with COVID-19, with the death toll nearing 200,000. For months, health experts have stressed the importance of wearing masks, social distancing, and avoiding large gatherings. But there continues to be reports of people congregating in large numbers – where not everyone practices social distancing and/or wears a face mask.
Outbreaks have already stemmed from Memorial Day events, Fourth of July celebrations and a massive motorcycle rally in Sturgis, South Dakota. More than 50,000 coronavirus cases have already been reported at colleges and universities in all 50 states. Still, on Monday, about 1,500 people gathered near a New Jersey boardwalk house featured in MTV’s Jersey Shore. Police made eight arrests that night, and officials are now worried about how to track possible infections in a thousand people.
Dr. Redfield urges Americans to continue wearing face masks.
“These face masks are the most important, powerful public health tool we have,” Dr. Redfield said, holding up a blue face mask.
“If we did it for six, eight, 10, 12 weeks, we’d bring this pandemic under control,” he said.
“I might even go so far as to say that this face mask is more guaranteed to protect me against Covid than when I take a Covid vaccine, because the immunogenicity may be 70%. And if I don’t get an immune response, the vaccine’s not going to protect me. This face mask will.”
Take care and stay safe, everyone. In the words of Game Of Thrones’ House Stark, “Winter is coming.”
